Property

In this video insight I challenge the idea that Labor’s federal budget is delivering genuine intergenerational fairness, arguing instead that it overlooks the fundamental drivers of Australia’s housing pressures. While Labor focuses on taxing investors and reshaping incentives, the reality is that strong migration and limited housing supply continue to fuel demand, keeping vacancy rates tight and affordability under strain. I also question whether shifting the burden onto “mum and dad” investors addresses the real issue, suggesting that broader structural reform and a more honest assessment of policy trade-offs are needed. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Property, Video Insights.

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Today on Ausbiz, I pushed back on forecasts calling for a 20–40 per cent collapse in Australian housing prices. In my view, that outcome is highly unlikely given the way our system is structured.

Yes, prices can fall. But when you’re bringing in tens of thousands of people each month and vacancy rates are sitting around 1 per cent, supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand. That imbalance continues to support prices. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

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Are housing prices on the way down, and what does war in the Middle East mean for markets, investors and their superannuation?

I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to unpack these issues, explaining why forecasts of sharp housing declines are unlikely given the strong incentives supporting prices, from migration to government policy and bank balance sheets. We also discussed how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could delay rate cuts, the potential for recent market gains to fade, and how the “SaaSpocalypse” (Software as a Service apocalypse) and artificial intelligence (AI) are impacting companies and investors.

Tune in to hear the segment: ABC Nightlife. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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There’s been a conga line of prognosticators who have forecast falling house prices. All of them have faded into history as house prices have grown since the 1970s, first at the rate of inflation, then at the rate of wage growth, then at the rate of Artemis II launch.

Recently, Money.com.au contracted Primara Research to produce a forecast of Aussie house prices for 2030 under a variety of interest rate, supply, and unemployment scenarios. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property.

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In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3.0 per cent from 5.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, as seen in Table 1.

Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.

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As investors, we have a particular interest in Australia’s condition, its desirability as a destination for living and its quality as a destination for investing. For some time now, I have feared better destinations exist elsewhere. Whether deliberate or unwitting, the government is not prioritising the betterment of the nation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Property.

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REA Group, the company behind realestate.com.au, has, perhaps unsurprisingly for those who have followed our commentary here at the blog, delivered another impressive financial performance, this time for the 2025 fiscal year (FY25). Record dividends and robust growth have been recorded despite the ongoing market challenges with respect to residential property listings. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Property.

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Last week, I attended an Australian housing market update from Eliza Owen, Head of Research at Cotality (formerly Core Logic). Below are some key insights that I thought were worth highlighting. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary, Property.

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The Whyalla Steelworks was established in 1941 and employs 1,100 people. The Mount Isa copper smelter was established in 1953 and employs 550 people, and the Townsville refinery was established in 1959 and employs 500 people. Without enormous government subsidisation, all three businesses look like they will follow the Exxon Mobile refinery, Oceana Glass and plastics makers, Qenos and Trident, into oblivion. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Property.

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Last week, REA Group delivered a broadly in-line third quarter result, highlighting the resilience of its pricing power and disciplined cost management, even as listing volumes soften into the final quarter.

Revenue for the period rose 12 per cent year-on-year to A$374 million, essentially matching market expectations, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) excluding associates increased 12 per cent to A$199 million, just shy of consensus estimates. Free cash flow was robust at A$132 million, marking a 19 per cent year-on-year increase. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Property.

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